The results of the first poll after the candidates for the 2019 presidential elections were officially registered are in, and President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo remains in the driving seat, while challenger Prabowo Subianto trails behind.
The survey, conducted by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), polled 1,200 respondents from August 12 to 19 about who they would vote for in the election.
Around 52.2 percent of the respondents chose Jokowi and running mate Ma’ruf Amin, while 29.5 percent chose Prabowo and running mate Sandiaga Uno. The remaining 18.3 percent were undecided or preferred not to answer.
The poll also looked at six demographic segments to see how popular the candidate pairs were in each group, namely Muslims, non-Muslims, low-income earners, women, educated voters and millennials.
Prabowo was found to have a slight edge over Jokowi among voters who had a university education, with 44.5 percent against 40.4 percent, but trailed the incumbent in the five other categories.
The poll also examined the effect that the vice-presidential candidate choices had on the electability of the presidential contenders.
When asked who they would choose out of Jokowi and Prabowo, without their respective running mates, 53.6 percent of respondents chose Jokowi while 28.8 percent opted for Prabowo.
This indicated that Ma’ruf slightly reduced the amount of support for Jokowi while Sandiaga slightly increased the amount of support for Prabowo.
Ma’ruf’s effect was particularly pronounced among non-Muslim and university-educated voters.
About 70.3 percent of non-Muslim respondents said they would vote for Jokowi, but the number went down to 51.5 percent when asked if they would vote for Jokowi and Ma’ruf.
Support from university-educated respondents also went down from 50.5 percent to 40.4 percent when Ma’ruf was included.
Sandiaga, on the other hand, proved popular among women, millennials and educated voters, slightly raising Prabowo’s electability across all three groups.